Health of Economy – HCPro Health Rate


United States of America (U.S.)


The USA or the United States of America is the second-largest country on the North American continent – after Canada and the third-largest country in the world. It is a union of 50 states and is the home to 330 million inhabitants. Its capital city is called Washington D.C., also the home of the Capitol building, Jefferson Memorial and Lincoln Memorial. There are no official languages in the country, however, English is an official language in all states. The U.S. American money is called the United States Dollar or in short US dollar.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP changes, in percentage terms, for the United States is 0.53%. Since the ideal yearly GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% this 6-month average is considered to be quite low. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. Giving more weight to the latest months, we find a 1% decrease on average, thus the direction of this economic indicator is NEGATIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for the United States is 0.30%. Since the ideal yearly inflation rate is around 2% this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is positive but below 0.30% thus the direction is considered NEGATIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate for the United States reached 7.8%.  This 6-month average is considered high when a desirable rate should be below 5% yearly. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average though is lower, thus the unemployment direction is considered POSITIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for the United States is -6.57% and a negative average net export -62.75B. Since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average next exports are also negative and higher than 62.75B%. In this case, the direction is NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the Governing Council of the ECB is keeping its key interest rate target on hold at 0.25 percent.
EUR/USD: For the last six months, the US dollar has been losing value against the Euro. The EURUSD rate begun rising from July until September 2020 when the market experienced a consolidation phase until late October. Then the EURUSD rose again until the end of the year.
S&P500: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. During this time a significant drawdown in its performance was observed in late October, early November, but after that, it showed a significant rise until the end of the year.

European Union (E.U.)


The EU, or European Union, is a union of European member countries. The EU is a political-economic union of countries that are located on the European continent. The EU member countries all are independent and sovereign countries with their own governments, own legislation, and own constitutions. The EU is home to 513 million inhabitants in total. Thus the EU is the third largest population after China and India. The EU is a political and economic union that has common institutions and an EU parliament.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP increases, in percentage terms, for the EU is 0.18%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered to be quite low. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. Giving more weight to the latest months, we find a 0.20% change on average, thus the direction of this economic indicator is POSITIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for the EU is -0.17%, a state of deflation. Since the ideal Inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered bad. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is also negative at -0.30% thus the direction is considered NEGATIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in the EU reached 8.13%.  This 6-month average is considered high when a desirable rate should be below 5% yearly. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is, unfortunately, higher, 8.33%, thus the unemployment direction is considered NEGATIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for the EU is 8.20% and a positive average net export of 22.3B. Since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered GOOD. The 3-month average next exports are also positive and higher than 22.3B. In this case, the direction is then POSITIVE.
Interest Rates:  For the last six months (and more, since 2016), the Governing Council of the ECB kept the benchmark refinancing rate at 0%. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2%.
EUR /GBP: For the last six months we see that for the market of EUR vs GBP it has been quite volatile with trends and reversals. In September 2020 the Euro was winning against the pound, with a 360 pips relatively rapid move upwards. In the middle of the month, the rate begun a full reversal that lasted until late November. Similar path was taken during the period December 2020 and January 2021.
EU500: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the Euro Stocks as well. Even though there is a drawdown in the performance of the EU500 index in late October, early November 2020. After that fall investors started to fuel funds into European equities again.

Canada


Canada is a large country in the northern hemisphere. The country belongs to the North American continent and shares a land border with the United States of America in the south and in the northwest. It is the second-largest country in the world, after Russia with a population of 37.6 million people (2020). The capital city of Canada is Ottawa. Canada is the third-largest oil reserve holder after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. The USA and China are the main trading partners of Canada.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for Canada is -1.37%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly this 6-month average is considered disastrous. Production was lower month after month, thus, the health indicator is rated VERY BAD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a -2.73% change on average, which is worse, thus the direction of this economic indicator is NEGATIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for Canada is 0.02%. Since the ideal Inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is higher at 0.10%, not so significant, however, the direction is considered POSITIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in Canada reached 9.35%.  This 6-month average is considered very high when a desirable rate should be below 5% yearly. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is, fortunately, higher, 8.67%, thus the unemployment direction is considered POSITIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for Canada is -2.72% and a negative average net export -3.08B. The trade balance seems to worsen each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered VERY BAD. The 3-month average next exports are also negative and more negative than -3.08B. In this case, the direction is then rated NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, The Bank of Canada (BOC) is keeping its key interest rate target on hold at 0.25 percent.
USD/CAD: For the last six months, the US dollar has been losing value against the Canadian dollar. The USDCAD rate begun falling from July until September 2020 when the market experienced a consolidation phase until late October. Then the USDCAD fell again until the end of the year.
S&P/TSX: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the S&P/TSX Composite Index is the benchmark Canadian index, representing roughly 70% of the total market capitalization on the Toronto Stock Exchange with about 250 companies included in it. During this time a significant drawdown in its performance was observed in late October, early November, but after that, it showed a significant rise until the end of the year.

United Kingdom


UK: The United Kingdom is a country belonging to the European continent that includes four separate countries on the British Isles: England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. About 67 million people live in the United Kingdom (2021). The biggest city in the UK is London, its capital city. The UK is among the world’s largest economies after USA, China, Japan, Germany and India.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for the UK is -1.37%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered quite undesirable, thus, the health indicator is rated VERY BAD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a -2.13% change on average, which is worse, thus the direction of this economic indicator is NEGATIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for Canada is 0.55%. Since the ideal Inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is lower at 0.53%, not so significant, however, the direction is considered NEGATIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in the UK reached 4.35%.  This 6-month average is considered desirable and below 5% yearly, rates healthy economies should have. Thus, the health indicator is considered GOOD. The 3-month average is, unfortunately, higher, 4.37%. Even though a not so significant difference, the unemployment direction is rated NEGATIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for the UK is -37.56% and a negative average net export -7.80B. The trade balance seems to worsen each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered VERY BAD. The 3-month average next exports are also negative, more negative than -7.80B. In this case, the direction is then rated NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the Bank of England base rate is currently 0.1%. It dropped from 0.25% to 0.1% on 19 March 2020 to help control the economic shock of coronavirus.
GBP/USD: For the last six months, the US dollar has been losing value against the British Pound overall. The GBPUSD rate begun rising from July until early September 2020 when the market experienced a fall phase until late September. Then the GBPUSD began rising again significantly following an upward trend until the end of the year.
FTSE100: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization. During this time a significant drawdown in its performance was observed in late October, early November, but after that, it showed a significant rise surpassing the value it had in July and closing a lot higher by the end of the year.

New Zealand


New Zealand is a country in the Southern hemisphere and consists of two main islands: North Island (Te Ika-a-Māui) and South Island (Te Waipounamu). Wellington is the capital city of New Zealand. The country’s population is 5 million (2020). The main trading partners are China, Australia, the USA and Japan.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for New Zealand is 0.32%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low, thus, the health indicator is rated NOT GOOD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a 0.07% change on average, which is worse, thus the direction of this economic indicator is NEGATIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for New Zealand is 0.45%. Since the ideal inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is lower at 0.23%, not so significant, however, the direction is considered NEGATIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in New Zealand reached 4.27%.  This 6-month average is considered desirable and below 5% yearly, rates healthy economies should have. Thus, the health indicator is considered GOOD. The 3-month average is, unfortunately, higher, 4.50%. Even though a not so significant difference, the unemployment direction is rated NEGATIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for New Zealand is -49.21% and a negative average net export -151.83B. The trade balance seems to worsen each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered VERY BAD. The 3-month average next exports are also negative, more negative than -151.83B. In this case, the direction is then rated NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds the official cash rate (OCR) at 0.25%. 
NZD/JPY: For the last six months, the Yen has been losing value against New Zealand dollar overall. The NZDJPY rate begun rising from July however it was in a consolidation phase. It didn’t rise in much value against the Yen but only in November. Then it showed a rapid upward movement that lasted until the end of the year.
FTSE100: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the NZX 50 Index, the main stock market index in New Zealand. It comprises the 50 biggest stocks by free-float market capitalization trading on the New Zealand Stock Market. During this time there was not a significant drawdown in its performance, instead there was an upward channel where its price followed until the and of the year.

Australia


Oceania is in a continental group consisting of 14 countries and includes Pacific islands and Australia. The largest island of Oceania is Australia with 25 million people (2020). The biggest and most populous city is Sydney but its capital city is Canberra. Australia is the sixth largest country in the world, after Russia, Canada, USA, China and Brazil..
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for Australia is -0.43%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered quite undesirable, thus, the health indicator is rated VERY BAD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a -1.33% change on average, which is worse, thus the direction of this economic indicator is NEGATIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for Australia is 0.30%. Since the ideal inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is lower at 0.0%, which is lower, thus the direction is considered NEGATIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in Australia reached 7.20%.  This 6-month average is considered undesirable and way above 5% yearly, which is the rate healthy economies should have. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is, unfortunately, higher, 7.33%. Even though a not so significant difference, the unemployment direction is rated NEGATIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for Australia is 5.31% and a positive average net export 5.59B. The trade balance seems to be steady positive each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered GOOD. The 3-month average next exports figure is also positive, more than 5.59B. In this case, the direction is then rated POSITIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the official cash rate as determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is 0.10%. RBA has cut the cash rate by 15 basis points in November (was 0.25%) taking it to a new record low of 0.10%.
EUR/AUD: For the last six months, the Australian dollar has been gaining value against the Euro overall. The EURAUD rate begun falling from July until early September 2020 when the market experienced a rise phase until late September. Then the EURAUD began falling again significantly following a huge downward trend until the end of the year.
ASX200: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the stock market index of stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. During this time the index has performed very well. A drawdown in its performance was observed in late October, early November, but after that, it showed a significant rise surpassing the value it had in July and closing a lot higher by the end of the year.

Japan


Japan is an island country on the Asian continent. More accurately, it is an archipelago or chain of islands along the eastern coast of Asia, reaching from the northern coast of Russia to the South East China Sea. The biggest cities in Japan are Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, and Nagoya. Tokyo is the biggest city in Japan and it’s is capital. There are 126.5 million people live in Japan (2020). Japan is the third-largest economy in the world after the USA and China. The main trading partners of Japan are the USA, China, South Korea and Australia. The main export products of Japan is known for the production of motor vehicles, electronics, robotics and mobile/smartphone games. Some of the biggest companies in Japan are Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda and Sony.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for Japan is -0.72%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered quite undesirable, thus, the health indicator is rated VERY BAD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a -1.07% change on average, which is worse, thus the direction of this economic indicator is NEGATIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for Japan is -0.37%, a phase of deflation. Since the ideal Inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered disastrous. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is even more negative at -0.70%, thus the direction is considered NEGATIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in Japan was 2.95%.  This 6-month average is considered quite desirable since is below 5% yearly, such are the rates healthy economies should have. Thus, the health indicator is considered GOOD. The 3-month average is, unfortunately, higher, 3.03%. Thus, the unemployment direction is rated NEGATIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for Japan is 267.29% and a positive average net export o.36T. The trade balance seems to get better each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered GOOD. The 3-month average next exports are positive, more positive than 0.36T. In this case, the direction is then rated POSITIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left the short-term policy rate for current accounts held by financial institutions at the Bank unchanged at minus 0.10%. In February 2016, the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds.
USD/JPY: For the last six months, the Japanese yen has been losing value against the US dollar overall. The USDJPY rate has falling but steadily inside a channel until the end of the year.
NIKKEI225: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei measures the performance of 225 large, publicly owned companies in Japan from a wide array of industry sectors. During this time the performance of the index is characterized as quite good since is value rose almost exponentially through the period until the end of the year.

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