Health of Economy – HCPro Health Rate 2020-2021


We analyze the basic economic indicators and, based on the data gathered, we create the metrics we call: the “Health Rate” Indicator for each country.

United States of America (U.S.)


The USA or the United States of America is the second-largest country on the North American continent – after Canada and the third-largest country in the world. It is a union of 50 states and is the home to 330 million inhabitants. Its capital city is called Washington D.C., also the home of the Capitol building, Jefferson Memorial and Lincoln Memorial. There are no official languages in the country, however, English is an official language in all states. The U.S. American money is called the United States Dollar or in short US dollar.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP changes, in percentage terms, for the United States is 1.63%. Since the ideal yearly GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% this 6-month average is considered close but not to be quite good level. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. Giving more weight to the latest months, we find a 15% increase on average, thus the direction of this economic indicator is POSITIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for the United States is 0.52%. Since the ideal yearly inflation rate is around 2% this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is positive 0.60%, above 0.52% thus the direction is considered POSITIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate for the United States reached 6.05%.  This 6-month average is considered high when a desirable rate should be below 5% yearly. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average though is lower, 5.9%, thus the unemployment direction is considered POSITIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for the United States is -1.45% and a negative average net export -70.07B. Since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered VERY BAD. The 3-month average next exports are also negative and in fact higher negative, -71.50. In this case, the direction is NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the Governing Council of the ECB is keeping its key interest rate target on hold at 0.25 percent.
EUR/USD: For the last six months, the US dollar has been losing value against the Euro overall. The EURUSD rate begun falling from January until April 2021 when the market experienced a reverse-phase until June. Then the EURUSD fell again until the beginning of July.
S&P500: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. During this time there wasn’t any significant drawdown in its performance.

European Union (E.U.)


The EU, or European Union, is a union of European member countries. The EU is a political-economic union of countries that are located on the European continent. The EU member countries all are independent and sovereign countries with their own governments, own legislation, and own constitutions. The EU is home to 513 million inhabitants in total. Thus the EU is the third largest population after China and India. The EU is a political and economic union that has common institutions and an EU parliament.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP increases, in percentage terms, for the EU is -0.73%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered to be quite low. Thus, the health indicator is considered VERY BAD. Giving more weight to the latest months, we find a 3.80% change on average, thus the direction of this economic indicator is POSITIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for the EU is 1.07%. Since the ideal Inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low but close. Thus, this health indicator is considered GOOD. The 3-month average is 1.63%, higher, thus the direction is considered POSITIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in the EU is 8.12%.  This 6-month average is considered high when a desirable rate should be below 5% yearly. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is lower 8%, thus the unemployment direction is considered POSITIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for the EU is -16.69% and a positive average net export of 19.6B. Since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered good, but the negative change is too high so it is ranked NOT GOOD. The 3-month average next exports are also positive, 13.60B but lower than 19.6B. In this case, the direction is then NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates:  For the last six months the Governing Council of the ECB increased the benchmark refinancing rate from -0.3 % (Jan 2021) to 2%. with a 6 month average of 1.07%.  Since it is rising it is considered GOOD. 
EUR /GBP: For the last six months we see that the market of EUR vs GBP has been bearish. Since January 2021 the EUR has been losing ground from GBP until April. Then it remained in a consolidation phase until now. 
EU500: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in Euro Stocks l. No significant drawdown in the performance of the EU500 index.

Canada


Canada is a large country in the northern hemisphere. The country belongs to the North American continent and shares a land border with the United States of America in the south and in the northwest. It is the second-largest country in the world, after Russia with a population of 37.6 million people (2020). The capital city of Canada is Ottawa. Canada is the third-largest oil reserve holder after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. The USA and China are the main trading partners of Canada.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for Canada is 0.45%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly this 6-month average is considered low, thus, the health indicator is rated NOT GOOD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a 0.40% change on average, which is worse, thus the direction of this economic indicator is NEGATIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for Canada is 0.40%. Since the ideal Inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is higher at 0.50%, not so significant, however, the direction is considered POSITIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in Canada reached 8.33%.  This 6-month average is considered very high when a desirable rate should be below 5% yearly. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is lower, 7.93%, thus the unemployment direction is considered POSITIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for Canada is -47% and a negative average net export -0.20B. The trade balance seems to worsen each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered VERY BAD. The 3-month average next exports is negative, -0.63B. In this case, the direction is then rated NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, The Bank of Canada (BOC) is keeping its key interest rate target on hold at 0.25 percent.
USD/CAD: For the last six months, the US dollar has been losing value against the Canadian dollar. The USDCAD rate begun falling from July until September 2020 when the market experienced a consolidation phase until late October. Then the USDCAD fell again until the end of the year.
S&P/TSX: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the S&P/TSX Composite Index is the benchmark Canadian index, representing roughly 70% of the total market capitalization on the Toronto Stock Exchange with about 250 companies included in it. During this time a significant drawdown in its performance was observed in late October, early November, but after that, it showed a significant rise until the end of the year.

United Kingdom


UK: The United Kingdom is a country belonging to the European continent that includes four separate countries on the British Isles: England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. About 67 million people live in the United Kingdom (2021). The biggest city in the UK is London, its capital city. The UK is among the world’s largest economies after USA, China, Japan, Germany and India.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for the UK is 0.08%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered undesirable, thus, the health indicator is rated NOT GOOD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a 1.60% change on average, which is better, thus the direction of this economic indicator is POSITIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for Canada is 1%. Since the ideal Inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low but close. Thus, this health indicator is considered GOOD. The 3-month average is higher, at 1.43%, so the direction is considered POSITIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in the UK reached 4.92%.  This 6-month average is considered desirable and below 5% yearly, rates healthy economies should have. Thus, the health indicator is considered GOOD. The 3-month average is lower, 4.80%. Even though a not so significant difference, the unemployment direction is rated POSITIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for the UK is 1.88% and a negative average net export -13.20B. The trade balance seems to get better each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered GOOD. The 3-month average next exports is also negative, -13.06B, lower negative. In this case, the direction is then rated POSITIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the Bank of England kept the base rate at 0.1%
GBP/USD: The last six months, the US dollar lost value against the British Pound overall. The GBPUSD rate begun rising from January 2021  when the market experienced a fall phase in March. Then the GBPUSD began rising again in April significantly and then fell again in June until now in July when the dollar started to gain grounds again.
FTSE100: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization. The continuous uprise without any significant drawdown started in February this year 2021.

New Zealand


New Zealand is a country in the Southern hemisphere and consists of two main islands: North Island (Te Ika-a-Māui) and South Island (Te Waipounamu). Wellington is the capital city of New Zealand. The country’s population is 5 million (2020). The main trading partners are China, Australia, the USA and Japan.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for New Zealand is 0.32%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low, thus, the health indicator is rated NOT GOOD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a 0.07% change on average, which is worse, thus the direction of this economic indicator is NEGATIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for New Zealand is 0.45%. Since the ideal inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is lower at 0.23%, not so significant, however, the direction is considered NEGATIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in New Zealand reached 4.27%.  This 6-month average is considered desirable and below 5% yearly, rates healthy economies should have. Thus, the health indicator is considered GOOD. The 3-month average is, unfortunately, higher, 4.50%. Even though a not so significant difference, the unemployment direction is rated NEGATIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for New Zealand is -49.21% and a negative average net export -151.83B. The trade balance seems to worsen each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered VERY BAD. The 3-month average next exports are also negative, more negative than -151.83B. In this case, the direction is then rated NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds the official cash rate (OCR) at 0.25%. 
NZD/JPY: For the last six months, the Yen has been losing value against New Zealand dollar overall. The NZDJPY rate begun rising from July however it was in a consolidation phase. It didn’t rise in much value against the Yen but only in November. Then it showed a rapid upward movement that lasted until the end of the year.
FTSE100: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the NZX 50 Index, the main stock market index in New Zealand. It comprises the 50 biggest stocks by free-float market capitalization trading on the New Zealand Stock Market. During this time there was not a significant drawdown in its performance, instead there was an upward channel where its price followed until the and of the year.

Australia


Oceania is in a continental group consisting of 14 countries and includes Pacific islands and Australia. The largest island of Oceania is Australia with 25 million people (2020). The biggest and most populous city is Sydney but its capital city is Canberra. Australia is the sixth largest country in the world, after Russia, Canada, USA, China and Brazil..
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for Australia is 0.23%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered quite undesirable, thus, the health indicator is rated NOT GOOD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a 2.73% change on average, which is better, thus the direction of this economic indicator is POSITIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for Australia is 0.37%. Since the ideal inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered low. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is higher at 1.03%,  thus the direction is considered POSITIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in Australia reached 5.83%.  This 6-month average is considered undesirable and above 5% yearly, which is the rate healthy economies should have. Thus, the health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is lower, 5.40%. Even though a not-so-significant difference, the unemployment direction is rated POSITIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for Australia is 12.46% and a positive average net export of 7.96B. The trade balance seems to be steady positive each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered GOOD. The 3-month average next exports figure is also positive, 7.76B. In this case, the direction is then rated NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the official cash rate as determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is 0.10%.
EUR/AUD: For the last six months, the Australian dollar has gained some value against the Euro overall. The EURAUD rate begun falling from January 2021 until March 2021 when the market experienced a rise after breaking a consolidation phase that ended in late May 2021.
ASX200: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the stock market index of stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. During this time the index has performed very well. No significant drawdown in its performance was observed.

Japan


Japan is an island country on the Asian continent. More accurately, it is an archipelago or chain of islands along the eastern coast of Asia, reaching from the northern coast of Russia to the South East China Sea. The biggest cities in Japan are Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, and Nagoya. Tokyo is the biggest city in Japan and it’s is capital. There are 126.5 million people live in Japan (2020). Japan is the third-largest economy in the world after the USA and China. The main trading partners of Japan are the USA, China, South Korea and Australia. The main export products of Japan is known for the production of motor vehicles, electronics, robotics and mobile/smartphone games. Some of the biggest companies in Japan are Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda and Sony.
Real GDP: For the last six months, the average inflation-adjusted GDP change, in percentage terms, for Japan is -0.60%. Since the ideal GDP growth rate is between 2%-3% yearly, this 6-month average is considered quite undesirable, thus, the health indicator is rated VERY BAD. Giving more weight to the latest 3 months, we find a 2.23% change on average, which is better, thus the direction of this economic indicator is POSITIVE.
Inflation: For the last six months, the average inflation rate, in percentage terms, for Japan is -0.15%, a phase of deflation. Since the ideal Inflation rate is around 2% yearly, this 6-month average is considered disastrous. Thus, this health indicator is considered NOT GOOD. The 3-month average is less negative at -0.03%, thus the direction is considered POSITIVE.
Unemployment: For the last six months, the average unemployment rate in Japan was 2.85%.  This 6-month average is considered quite desirable since is below 5% yearly, such are the rates healthy economies should have. Thus, the health indicator is considered GOOD. The 3-month average is lower, 2.8%. Thus, the unemployment direction is rated POSITIVE.
Balance of Trade: For the last six months, the average of changes in Trade Balance, in percentage terms, for Japan is 125.71% and a positive average net export o.30T. The trade balance seems to get better each month and since an economy prefers a positive trade balance it is considered GOOD. The 3-month average next exports are less positive, 0.11T. In this case, the direction is then rated NEGATIVE.
Interest Rates: For the last six months, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left the short-term policy rate for current accounts held by financial institutions at the Bank unchanged at minus 0.10%.
USD/JPY: For the last six months, the Japanese yen has been losing value against the US dollar overall. The USDJPY was heading upwards following a trend until April 2021 when it experienced a short reverse. Then in May 2021, the trend continued until now, July 2021.
NIKKEI225: For the last six months it has been observed a rise in the stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei measures the performance of 225 large, publicly owned companies in Japan from a wide array of industry sectors. During this time the index rose at the beginning of the year by 4000 JPY and stopped for a small reversal. Since then it is in a consolidation phase until now July 2021.

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